Mexico Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
2 0.84 (0.76, 0.91) 0.84 (0.76, 0.91) 1.03 (0.76, 1.38) 0.84 (0.66, 1.07) 0.7 (0.51, 0.96)
3 1.05 (0.81, 1.16) 1.06 (0.95, 1.17) 0.93 (0.71, 1.22) 0.9 (0.73, 1.13) 0.88 (0.72, 1.09)
4 1.1 (1, 1.27) 1.1 (1, 1.25) 1.09 (0.94, 1.28) 1.13 (0.96, 1.33) 1.07 (0.92, 1.24)
5 1.37 (1.14, 1.65) 1.36 (1.01, 1.58) 1.24 (1.08, 1.41) 1.4 (1.17, 1.66) 1.34 (1.14, 1.56)
6 1.19 (0.98, 1.45) 1.26 (1.01, 1.53) 1.17 (0.97, 1.41) 1.18 (0.97, 1.45) 1.22 (1.02, 1.45)
7 1.14 (0.85, 1.38) 1.21 (1.03, 1.41) 0.9 (0.72, 1.11) 0.89 (0.72, 1.09) 0.96 (0.81, 1.13)
8 0.97 (0.83, 1.27) 1.16 (0.98, 1.34) 0.9 (0.73, 1.09) 0.83 (0.69, 1.01) 0.95 (0.83, 1.1)
9 0.83 (0.77, 0.91) 0.83 (0.77, 0.91) 1.01 (0.74, 1.43) 0.96 (0.66, 1.33) 0.71 (0.53, 1.01)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
2 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
3 0.876 0.000 0.000 0.124
4 0.889 0.000 0.111 0.000
5 0.000 0.144 0.856 0.000
6 0.000 0.000 0.836 0.164
7 0.643 0.000 0.004 0.354
8 0.197 0.000 0.000 0.803
9 0.995 0.005 0.000 0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
2 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 Z00_99 0.0211582 Q00_99 0.0176928
3 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 G00_99_SY 0.0402699 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.0280291
4 A41 0.9905236 K35 0.5883393 K00_99 0.2011958
5 C00_D48 0.4525826 G00_99_SY 0.2685790 N00_99 0.2472742
6 ach_noj 0.3836606 Z00_99 0.2099906 B20_24 0.2007676
7 cJ20_J22 0.7369667 E00_99 0.5282158 E10_14 0.3877612
8 E00_99 0.5834721 cJ20_J22 0.5720966 E10_14 0.3441731
9 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 S00_T99 0.0969405 P00_99 0.0519008

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
2 0.84 (0.76, 0.91) cJ20_J22 1 1.22 (1.01, 1.63) Z00_99 0.02 1.19 (0.95, 1.42) Q00_99 0.02 1.2 (0.97, 1.61)
3 1.06 (0.95, 1.17) cJ20_J22 1 1.14 (0.94, 1.37) G00_99_SY 0.04 1.14 (0.97, 1.4) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.03 1.16 (0.98, 1.42)
4 1.1 (1, 1.25) A41 0.99 1.19 (1.03, 1.35) K35 0.59 1.19 (1.02, 1.35) K00_99 0.2 1.19 (1.01, 1.35)
5 1.36 (1.01, 1.58) C00_D48 0.45 1.21 (0.98, 1.56) G00_99_SY 0.27 1.14 (0.95, 1.44) N00_99 0.25 1.2 (0.96, 1.44)
6 1.26 (1.01, 1.53) Z00_99 0.21 1.26 (1, 1.58) B20_24 0.2 1.23 (0.98, 1.55) C00_D48 0.13 1.23 (0.98, 1.58)
7 1.21 (1.03, 1.41) cJ20_J22 0.74 1.15 (0.99, 1.45) E00_99 0.53 1.16 (0.97, 1.43) E10_14 0.39 1.02 (0.81, 1.26)
8 1.16 (0.98, 1.34) E00_99 0.58 1.18 (0.95, 1.38) cJ20_J22 0.57 1.11 (0.86, 1.28) E10_14 0.34 1 (0.82, 1.18)
9 0.83 (0.77, 0.91) cJ20_J22 1 1.08 (0.88, 1.82) S00_T99 0.1 1.31 (0.92, 2.06) P00_99 0.05 1.24 (0.9, 1.87)

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