Synthetic Controls
Report generated Monday, July 23, 2018
Mexico Results
combine estimates
| Stacking Estimate (95% CI) | SC Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend Estimate (95% CI) | Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) | STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.84 (0.76, 0.91) | 0.84 (0.76, 0.91) | 1.03 (0.76, 1.38) | 0.84 (0.66, 1.07) | 0.7 (0.51, 0.96) |
| 3 | 1.05 (0.81, 1.16) | 1.06 (0.95, 1.17) | 0.93 (0.71, 1.22) | 0.9 (0.73, 1.13) | 0.88 (0.72, 1.09) |
| 4 | 1.1 (1, 1.27) | 1.1 (1, 1.25) | 1.09 (0.94, 1.28) | 1.13 (0.96, 1.33) | 1.07 (0.92, 1.24) |
| 5 | 1.37 (1.14, 1.65) | 1.36 (1.01, 1.58) | 1.24 (1.08, 1.41) | 1.4 (1.17, 1.66) | 1.34 (1.14, 1.56) |
| 6 | 1.19 (0.98, 1.45) | 1.26 (1.01, 1.53) | 1.17 (0.97, 1.41) | 1.18 (0.97, 1.45) | 1.22 (1.02, 1.45) |
| 7 | 1.14 (0.85, 1.38) | 1.21 (1.03, 1.41) | 0.9 (0.72, 1.11) | 0.89 (0.72, 1.09) | 0.96 (0.81, 1.13) |
| 8 | 0.97 (0.83, 1.27) | 1.16 (0.98, 1.34) | 0.9 (0.73, 1.09) | 0.83 (0.69, 1.01) | 0.95 (0.83, 1.1) |
| 9 | 0.83 (0.77, 0.91) | 0.83 (0.77, 0.91) | 1.01 (0.74, 1.43) | 0.96 (0.66, 1.33) | 0.71 (0.53, 1.01) |
Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights
Weights for each of the models from cross validation
| groups | Synthetic Controls | Time trend | Time trend (no offset) | STL+PCA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3 | 0.876 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.124 |
| 4 | 0.889 | 0.000 | 0.111 | 0.000 |
| 5 | 0.000 | 0.144 | 0.856 | 0.000 |
| 6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.836 | 0.164 |
| 7 | 0.643 | 0.000 | 0.004 | 0.354 |
| 8 | 0.197 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.803 |
| 9 | 0.995 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Inclusion Probabilities
| Group | Greatest Inclusion Variable | Greatest Inclusion Probability | Second Greatest Inclusion Variable | Second Greatest Inclusion Probability | Third Greatest Inclusion Variable | Third Greatest Inclusion Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | Z00_99 | 0.0211582 | Q00_99 | 0.0176928 |
| 3 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | G00_99_SY | 0.0402699 | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.0280291 |
| 4 | A41 | 0.9905236 | K35 | 0.5883393 | K00_99 | 0.2011958 |
| 5 | C00_D48 | 0.4525826 | G00_99_SY | 0.2685790 | N00_99 | 0.2472742 |
| 6 | ach_noj | 0.3836606 | Z00_99 | 0.2099906 | B20_24 | 0.2007676 |
| 7 | cJ20_J22 | 0.7369667 | E00_99 | 0.5282158 | E10_14 | 0.3877612 |
| 8 | E00_99 | 0.5834721 | cJ20_J22 | 0.5720966 | E10_14 | 0.3441731 |
| 9 | cJ20_J22 | 1.0000000 | S00_T99 | 0.0969405 | P00_99 | 0.0519008 |
Weight Sensitivity Analysis
| Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 1 | Inclusion Probability of Control 1 | Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 2 | Inclusion Probability of Control 2 | Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) | Top Control 3 | Inclusion Probability of Control 3 | Control 3 Estimate (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.84 (0.76, 0.91) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 1.22 (1.01, 1.63) | Z00_99 | 0.02 | 1.19 (0.95, 1.42) | Q00_99 | 0.02 | 1.2 (0.97, 1.61) |
| 3 | 1.06 (0.95, 1.17) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 1.14 (0.94, 1.37) | G00_99_SY | 0.04 | 1.14 (0.97, 1.4) | A10_B99_nopneumo | 0.03 | 1.16 (0.98, 1.42) |
| 4 | 1.1 (1, 1.25) | A41 | 0.99 | 1.19 (1.03, 1.35) | K35 | 0.59 | 1.19 (1.02, 1.35) | K00_99 | 0.2 | 1.19 (1.01, 1.35) |
| 5 | 1.36 (1.01, 1.58) | C00_D48 | 0.45 | 1.21 (0.98, 1.56) | G00_99_SY | 0.27 | 1.14 (0.95, 1.44) | N00_99 | 0.25 | 1.2 (0.96, 1.44) |
| 6 | 1.26 (1.01, 1.53) | Z00_99 | 0.21 | 1.26 (1, 1.58) | B20_24 | 0.2 | 1.23 (0.98, 1.55) | C00_D48 | 0.13 | 1.23 (0.98, 1.58) |
| 7 | 1.21 (1.03, 1.41) | cJ20_J22 | 0.74 | 1.15 (0.99, 1.45) | E00_99 | 0.53 | 1.16 (0.97, 1.43) | E10_14 | 0.39 | 1.02 (0.81, 1.26) |
| 8 | 1.16 (0.98, 1.34) | E00_99 | 0.58 | 1.18 (0.95, 1.38) | cJ20_J22 | 0.57 | 1.11 (0.86, 1.28) | E10_14 | 0.34 | 1 (0.82, 1.18) |
| 9 | 0.83 (0.77, 0.91) | cJ20_J22 | 1 | 1.08 (0.88, 1.82) | S00_T99 | 0.1 | 1.31 (0.92, 2.06) | P00_99 | 0.05 | 1.24 (0.9, 1.87) |
Plots
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